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Surprisingly, the model is designed to work this way because the probabilities in VaR are based on a normal distribution of returns. But financial markets are known to have non-normal distributions. C.Zheng(2007) used VAR model to analyze how foreign exchange reserves effect on monetary supply, and find out that foreign exchange reserve growth is the reason to money supply increase. EXPERIMENTAL SECTION I use STATA 12.0 software and make a statistical analysis of foreign exchange reserve (FER) and consumer price index (CPI) .The monthly data is from Jan.2008 to Dec.2011, and we undertook ... Suppose, my portfolio includes 4 stocks, 3 bonds, 4 forex transactions and say 2 derivative instruments (say 2 options). How do I find the the Value at Risk using say Var covar or Monte carlo simulation. I understand this is very general question and I just need general methodology. I shall be very grateful to you if you can guide me. I tried to search lot about portfolio var, but so far I am ... I have two models (Model 1 and Model 2), with different set and number of independent variables. The variables in the model 1 are selected using Stata command vselect whereas Model 2 using Stata ... Exhibit 1: A portfolio’s 90% VaR is the amount of money such that there is a 90% probability of the portfolio losing less than that amount of money—the 90% quantile of 1 L. This exhibit illustrates how that quantity can be calculated as the portfolio’s current value 0 p minus the 10% quantile of 1 P. Other value-at-risk metrics can be valued similarly. Other value-at-risk metrics can be ... Thus if j j<1, model A is said to be invertible whereas model B is not. The imposition of the invertibility condition ensures that there is a unique MA process for a given autocorrelation function. Al Nosedal University of Toronto The Moving Average Models MA(1) and MA(2) February 5, 2019 21 / 47. Simulated Examples of the MA(1) Model x t = w t + b 1w t 1 There are two cases, positive and ... Value at risk (VaR) is a statistic that measures and quantifies the level of financial risk within a firm, portfolio, or position over a specific time frame. var( ) ttj t YY Y where cov( , ) YY ... Example: AR(1) model of inflation – STATA First, let STATA know you are using time series data generate time=q(1959q1)+_n-1; _n is the observation no. So this command creates a new variable time that has a special quarterly date format format time %tq; Specify the quarterly date format sort time; Sort by time tsset time; Let STATA know that the ... Title stata.com arima — ARIMA, ARMAX, and other dynamic regression models SyntaxMenuDescriptionOptions Remarks and examplesStored resultsMethods and formulasReferences Also see Syntax Basic syntax for a regression model with ARMA disturbances arima depvar A Monte Carlo VaR model using the following sequence of steps. Generate randomly simulated prices; Calculate daily return series ; Repeat the steps in the historical simulation method described below; Quick Review. Historical Simulation VaR: Variance / Covariance VaR: Monte Carlo Simulation VaR: Risks of portfolios that contain options: Yes regardless of the option content: No, except when ...

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Stata commands used to specify and estimate a Vector Auto-regression model and generate Impulse Response Functions given a specific Cholesky Ordering. ===== Welcome to Hossain Academy Homepage:https://www.sayedhossain.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/sayedhossain23 Facebook:... Hossain Academy invites you to VAR model using STATA Hello friends, Hope you all are doing great! This video describes how to run VAR model in R Studio. In the next video, we would learn how to run vector error... Sígueme en mi Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/theeconomist.elia Asesoramos en Econometria, Monografias, Proyectos de Investigación y tesis de pre grado y ... ===== Welcome to Hossain Academy Homepage:https://www.sayedhossain.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/sayedhossain23 Facebook:... module related to IMF Course Before you start... Please open the Module 5 Part 1 VAR workfile in EViews to follow along with the instructor. This file has tw... So, what do you understand by vector error correction model (VECM)? You may say any of the following: that it is a system having a vector of two or more vari... This is muhmmad saeed please visit my you-tube chanel for more video and my blog for research tips and tricks www.saeedmeo.blogspot.com Hossain Academy invites to forecasting in VAR using STATA

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